Bulgaria GDP


Bulgaria: Economy slows in Q3

November 14, 2014

In the third quarter, the economy expanded 1.6% over the same period last year according to preliminary data released on 14 November. The figure was down from the 1.8% expansion tallied in the previous quarter. The slowdown in Q3 was driven by a deterioration in the external sector.

On the domestic side, final consumption growth accelerated from a 1.2% increase in Q2 to a 1.4% rise in Q3. However, fixed investment decelerated, growing 4.2% in Q3 compared to 5.1% in Q2 and marking the lowest reading in three quarters.

On the external side of the economy, exports contracted 2.4% over the same quarter last year, which contrasted the 3.0% expansion recorded in Q2 and marked the steepest decrease since Q3 2009. Growth in imports slowed from 3.7% in Q2 to 1.0% in Q3. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to the economy deteriorated from minus 0.7 percentage points in Q2 to minus 2.5 percentage points in Q3.

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.5% in the third quarter, which was up from the 0.3% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

The government sees economic growth at 1.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus. In 2015, panelists see the economy growing 2.0%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Bulgaria GDP Chart

Bulgaria GDP Q3 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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