Bulgaria GDP


Bulgaria: Economy expands in Q4 at slowest pace in over one year

March 6, 2015

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the economy expanded 1.3% over the same period of the previous year, according to more detailed data released on 6 March. The print was just above the preliminary estimate of a 1.2% expansion. However, the reading was below the 1.5% expansion tallied in the previous quarter and marked the lowest growth rate in since Q3 2013.

Private consumption recorded a 0.9% expansion (Q3: +0.6% year-on-year) and government spending rose 1.6% in Q4 (Q3: +1.0% yoy). In contrast, fixed investment decelerated from a 4.4% increase in Q3 to a 3.3% rise in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, exports swung to a 5.4% expansion in Q4 from a 2.8% contraction in Q3, which marked the largest growth since Q4 2013. Imports accelerated from a 2.6% increase in Q3 to a 7.5% rise in Q4, which marked an over year and a half high. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to the economy rose from a minus 3.6 percentage points in Q3 to minus 1.4 percentage points in Q4.

According to preliminary data released for the full year 2014, GDP expanded by 1.7%. The result was above the revised 1.1% growth for 2013 (previously reported: +0.9%). The new growth figures reflect the recent revision to the year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 1.7% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, panelists see the economy growing 2.1%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Bulgaria GDP Chart

Bulgaria GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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