Bulgaria: Economy expands at the fastest pace in a year and half
November 14, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP expanded 0.8% over the same period last year according to preliminary data released on 14 November. The figure exceeded the 0.2% expansion recorded in the second quarter and represents the highest growth rate in a year and half. The quarterly expansion was driven by an improvement in the domestic demand.
Total consumption growth accelerated from a 0.2% expansion in Q2 to a 0.4% increase in Q3. Private consumption improved from a 1.3% fall in Q2 to a 1.0% decrease in Q3, while government consumption expanded 2.1% (Q2: +2.6% year-on-year). Fixed investment rose 1.2%, down from a 1.4% increase in Q2.
On the external side of the economy, exports rose 6.7% in Q3, which was up from the 4.5% rise in Q2. In addition, imports expanded 5.0% in Q3 (Q2: +2.0% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to the overall economy fell from 1.4 percentage points in Q2 to 0.8 percentage points in Q3. More detailed data will be released on 5 December.
The government sees GDP growing 0.6% this year and increasing 1.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 0.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month's Consensus. Next year, panelists see the economy growing 1.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist