Bulgaria GDP Q4 2016


Bulgaria: Economic growth steady in Q4

February 17, 2017

In the fourth quarter, the Bulgarian economy expanded 3.4% from the same period last year, according to preliminary data released on 17 February. The print matched the reading observed in the previous quarter. Q4’s result mainly came on the back of an expansion in total consumption, which partly offset a contraction in fixed investment.

Total consumption recorded a 0.9% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +0.2% year-on-year). Conversely, fixed investment dropped 1.5% (Q3: -1.8% year-on-year), which marked the third consecutive quarterly contraction.

On the external side of the economy, export growth moderated from a 9.5% expansion in Q3 to a 9.1% increase in Q4. Meanwhile, imports registered a 7.8% expansion (Q3: +7.5% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to economic growth decreased from 1.1 percentage points in Q3 to 0.7 percentage points in Q4.

More detailed data will be released on 7 March.

The Ministry of Finance expects the economy to expand 2.5% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists see the economy growing 3.0%.

Author:, Economist

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