Brazil: Retail sales slow further in October
December 12, 2013
In October, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The increase was below the 0.5% rise registered in September, but it matched market expectations. The result marked the lowest growth rate in seven months. On an annual basis, retail sales expanded 5.3% in October, which was above the 4.3% growth rate registered in September.
Five of the eight categories that compose the narrow retail sales index increased. The largest gain over the previous month was seen in the office equipment and computers category. Conversely, sales at supermarkets registered declines. Meanwhile, the broad retail sales index, which includes automobiles and construction materials, expanded 1.8% over the previous month (September: -0.7% month-on-month).
Annual average growth in retail sales fell from 4.8% in September to 4.5% in October, which marks the lowest level since June 2004.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth in retail sales to decelerate further, expanding 4.2% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel sees retail sales growing 4.1%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist