Brazil Retail March 2016


Brazil: Retail sales return to contraction

May 11, 2016

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) returned to contraction in March, falling 0.9% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The result notably contrasted February’s revised 1.1% expansion (previously reported: +1.2% month-on-month). Six of the eight components of the index contracted, with food, beverages and tobacco recording a profound drop.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 5.7% in March, which was a steeper drop than February’s 4.2% contraction. As a result, the trend deteriorated. Annual average growth in retail sales fell from minus 5.3% to 5.8%.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 3.4% in 2016, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees retail sales growing 0.5%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail March 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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