Brazil Retail


Brazil: Retail sales record sixth consecutive fall in July

September 16, 2015

In July, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 1.0% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was in line with market analysts’ expectations and marked a more pronounced contraction compared to June’s revised 0.5% decrease (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month). July’s result marked the sixth consecutive decrease in retail sales against a backdrop of technical recession and high inflation in Latin America’s largest economy. The monthly deterioration came on the back of a worse performance in seven of eight components of the index, compared to June. With notable declines recorded in sales of office and communication equipment along with household appliances and furniture.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 3.5% in June, which was a deterioration over June’s 2.7% decrease. As a result, annual average growth in retail sales continued to fall, decreasing from June’s minus 0.8% to minus 1.0% in July.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to contract 0.6% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees retail sales growing 1.1%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail July 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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