Brazil Retail April 2017


Brazil: Retail sales rebound in April

June 13, 2017

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) rebounded in April after falling in March. Sales rose 1.0% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted March’s revised 1.2% decrease (previously reported: -1.9% month-on-month) and overshot market analysts expectations of a drop. The rise is a positive sign and points to recovering activity in the battered economy.

Looking at April’s result in detail, expansions were recorded in five of the eight components of the index. The monthly rise was driven largely by rising sales of food, beverages and tobacco, which rebounded after substantial falls in the previous two months.

On an annual basis, retail sales increased 2.0% in April, which was an improvement from March’s 3.2% decline. As a result, the trend rose and the annual average variation in retail sales came in at minus 4.6% in April, above March’s minus 5.2%.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 0.7% in 2017, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees retail sales growing 2.8%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail April 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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