Brazil: Retail sales pick back up in November
January 16, 2014
In November, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.7% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The increase was above the 0.3% rise registered in October and exceeded market expectations of a 0.4% increase. On an annual basis, retail sales expanded 7.0% in November, which was above the 5.4% growth rate registered in October.
Seven of the eight categories that compose the narrow retail sales index increased. The largest gain over the previous month was seen in the pharmaceuticals category. Office equipment and computers was the only category where sales registered a decline. Meanwhile, the broad retail sales index, which includes automobiles and construction materials, expanded 1.3% over the previous month (October: +2.0% month-on-month).
Annual average growth in retail sales fell from 4.5% in October to 4.4% in November, which marks the lowest level since June 2004.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth in retail sales to expand 4.2% in 2014, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, the panel sees retail sales growing 3.7%.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist