Brazil Retail December 2016


Brazil: Retail sales hit 40-month high in November

January 5, 2017

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) grew strongly in November, helped by Black Friday sales and the upcoming holiday season. Sales grew 2.0% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, rebounding from October’s 0.3% contraction. The result marked the fastest growth since July 2013 as green shoots emerge in Brazil’s battered economy.

Growth was seen in five of the eight components of the index in November. Food, beverages and tobacco—the most significant category of the index—returned to expansion, after a small contraction in the previous month. In addition, sales of articles for personal and domestic uses surged over 7.0% in part due to successful sales of electronic items.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 3.5% in November, which was a notable improvement from October’s 8.1% decline. As a result, the trend edged up as the annual average variation in retail sales rose from minus 6.8% to minus 6.5%, a six-month high.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 0.5% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees retail sales growing 2.8%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail November 2016

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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