Brazil Retail May 2017


Brazil: Retail sales fall in May

July 21, 2017

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) dropped in May after growing in April. Sales fell 0.1% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted April’s revised 0.9% increase (previously reported: +1.0% month-on-month) and notably undershot market analysts expectations of a rise. The unexpected fall is a bad sign for the battered economy and suggests that a firm recovery has yet to take hold.

Looking at May’s result in detail, drops were recorded in four of the eight components of the index. A notable fall was seen in sales of clothing and footwear, while sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose in May.

On an annual basis, retail sales increased 2.4% in May, which was above April’s 1.7% increase. As a result, the trend rose and the annual average variation in retail sales came in at minus 3.6% in May, above April’s minus 4.6%.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 0.7% in 2017, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees retail sales growing 2.3%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail May 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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