Brazil Retail


Brazil: Retail sales fall again, but at weakest rate in eight months

November 12, 2015

Retail sales continued to contract in September, recording an eighth consecutive drop. Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was a more moderate decrease than the 0.9% fall tallied in August. September’s improvement over August’s more pronounced contraction came on the back of a better performance in five of eight components of the index. However, the figure still suggests that private consumption remains subdued amid a backdrop of technical recession and high inflation in Latin America’s largest economy.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 6.2% in September, which was a moderation over August’s 6.9% decrease. However, the trend continued to deteriorate as annual average growth in retail sales fell from August’s minus 1.5% to minus 2.1% in September.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 3.4% in 2015, which is down 1.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees retail sales falling 1.0%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail September 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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