Brazil Retail October 2017


Brazil: Retail sales contract in October

December 13, 2017

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.9% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, which contrasted September’s revised 0.3% rise (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month). The result notably undershot market analysts’ expectations of a 0.9% rise.

Looking at October’s result in detail, falling sales were seen for five of the eight components of the index, with lower supermarket sales driving the downturn. In contrast, purchases of fuels and lubricants rose notably.

On an annual basis, retail sales increased 2.5% in October, which was notably below September’s 6.2% growth. Despite the deceleration, the trend rose and the annual average variation in retail sales swung from minus 0.6% in September to plus 0.3% in October.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 3.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees retail sales growing 3.7%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail October 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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