Brazil Retail January 2017


Brazil: Retail sales contract for second consecutive month

March 30, 2017

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) in Brazil fell again in January, contrasting market expectations of a return to growth. Sales fell 0.7% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed December’s revised 1.9% contraction (previously reported: -2.1% month-on-month).

Contractions were recorded in six of the eight components of the index in January. However, food, beverages and tobacco—the most significant category of the index—recorded a slight expansion.

On an annual basis, retail sales decreased 7.0% in January, which was a deterioration from December’s 4.9% decline and marked a three-month low. Despite the poor result, the trend edged up as the annual average variation in retail sales rose from minus 6.3% to minus 5.9%, a ten-month high.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to decrease 0.1% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees retail sales growing 1.9%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail January 2017

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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