Brazil Retail January 2019


Brazil: Retail sales bounce back in January

March 15, 2019

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, notably contrasting December’s revised 2.1% contraction (previously reported: +2.2% month-on-month). December´s result had marked the largest drop in over two years. However, the result undershot market expectations of a stronger 0.6% increase.

The rebound was driven chiefly by a turnaround in sales of food, beverages and tobacco. In addition, sales of furniture and household appliances also increased, after contracting in December. Meanwhile, sales of fuels and lubricants lost steam from the previous month.

On an annual basis, retail sales rose 1.9% in January, notably above December’s revised 0.7% expansion (previously reported: +0.6% year-on-year). Annual average growth in retail sales, however, ticked down from 2.3% in December to 2.2% in January.

Brazil Retail Sales Forecast

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees retail sales growing 3.6%.


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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail January 2019

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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