Brazil Retail


Brazil: Decline in retail sales moderates in August

October 14, 2015

In August, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.9% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was a more moderate decrease than the revised 1.6% fall tallied in July (previously reported: -1.0% month-on-month). August’s improvement over July’s more pronounced contraction came on the back of a better performance in five of eight components of the index.

Despite the improvement, the print was still worse than market analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% fall and marked the seventh consecutive decrease in retail sales. Moreover, the figure suggests that private consumption remains subdued amid a backdrop of technical recession and high inflation in Latin America’s largest economy.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 6.9% in August, which was a deterioration over July’s revised 3.9% decrease (previously reported: -3.5% year-on-year). As a result, annual average growth in retail sales continued to decline, decreasing from July’s minus 1.0% to minus 1.5% in August.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 2.4% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees retail sales falling 0.4%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail August 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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