Brazil Retail December 2015

Brazil

Brazil: December retail sales post largest contraction on record

February 16, 2016

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) deteriorated rapidly in December, swinging from a revised 1.6% expansion in November (previously reported: +1.5% month-on-month) to a 2.7% contraction over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. December’s figure marks the largest contraction on record amid overwhelming abysmal economic data concerning Latin America’s largest economy. The fall came on the back of contractions recorded in six of the eight components of the index. Specially, sales of furniture and household appliances as well as personal articles deteriorated notably from the previous month.

On an annual basis, retail sales plummeted 7.1% in December, which followed November’s 7.8% fall that had marked the worst result in over a decade. For the fully year 2015, retail sales contracted 4.3%, notably contrasting 2014’s 2.2% expansion and representing the first contraction in over a decade.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 2.9% in 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees retail sales growing 0.8%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart


Brazil Retail December 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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