Brazil Inflation

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Brazil: Inflation climbs to highest level in almost 12 years in October

November 6, 2015

Consumer prices in October increased 0.82% over the previous month. The print was above the 0.54% increase recorded in September and overshot market expectations of a 0.80% rise. The monthly result was mainly driven by higher prices for transportation—caused by a large increase in fuel prices—as well as for food and beverages.

Inflation in October climbed from September’s 9.5% to 9.9%, which marked the highest figure since November 2003. As a result, inflation remains far above the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 2.0 percentage points around 4.5%. Inflationary pressures have risen dramatically since the beginning of the year despite a number of hikes in the Central Bank’s SELIC interest rate and the economy being in recession.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see inflation closing 2015 at 9.7%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation of 6.1%, which is also up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Inflation Chart


Brazil Inflation October 2015

Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).


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