Brazil Industry

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Brazil: Industrial production swings to contraction in November

January 8, 2015

In November, industrial production fell 0.7% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which contrasted October’s mild 0.1% expansion. The figure notably undershot the 0.5% expansion that markets had expected and marked a five-month low. The contraction was driven by almost across-the-board decreases, with the exception of intermediate goods that recorded flat growth. The largest decreases were recorded in durable and semi/non-durable goods.

In annual terms, industrial production fell 5.8% in November (October: -3.4% year-on-year). A decrease in output was recorded in 22 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impacts were recorded in the production of motor vehicles, trailers and trucks, as well as of food products.

Following the fall in annual figures, annual average growth in industrial production deteriorated from minus 2.4% in October to minus 3.0% in November, marking the lowest level since January 2010. Annual average growth has followed an uninterrupted downward trend since March of 2014.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production increasing 0.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to expand 2.3%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Industry November 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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