Brazil Industry

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Brazil: Industrial production returns to contraction in June

August 4, 2015

In June, industrial production contracted 0.3% over May on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which contrasted the 0.6% increase seen in the previous month. May’s result had marked the highest reading in 10 months. June’s fall was slightly less than the 0.6% decline that market analysts had expected and was driven by a deterioration in the production of capital and consumer goods.

In annual terms, industrial production fell 3.2% in June (May: -8.9% year-on-year). A decrease in output was recorded in 19 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impact was recorded in the production of motor vehicles and trailers. In addition, the production of coke, oil products and biofuels fell significantly.

Annual average growth in industrial production rose slightly from May’s minus 5.3%, which had marked the lowest level since December 2009, to minus 5.0% in June. Despite the rise, annual average growth has followed a broadly downward trend since March 2014.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production falling 2.8% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to expand 1.6%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Industry Chart


Brazil Industry June 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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