Brazil: Industrial production records second consecutive contraction in March

In March, industrial production fell 0.8% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which followed the 1.3% decrease recorded in February. The fall was slightly larger than the 0.7% drop the market had expected and was driven by an almost across-the-board deterioration.

In annual terms, industrial production fell 3.5% in March (February: -9.4% year-on-year). A decrease in output was recorded in 16 of the 24 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impact was recorded in the production of motor vehicles and trailers.

Annual average growth in industrial production fell from February’s minus 4.5% to minus 4.7% in March, which marked the lowest level since December 2009. Annual average growth has followed a downward trend since March 2014.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production falling 1.0% in 2015, which is down 1.4 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to expand 2.0%.