Brazil Industry


Brazil: Industrial production records largest contraction in one year

February 3, 2015

In December, industrial production fell 2.8% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which marked a deterioration over November’s 1.1% contraction. The figure undershot the 2.4% drop that markets had expected and marked a year low. The contraction was driven by across-the-board decreases, with the largest decrease recorded in capital goods.

In annual terms, industrial production fell 2.7% in December (November: -6.1% year-on-year). A decrease in output was recorded in 18 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impacts were recorded in the production of motor vehicles, trailers and trucks, as well as of food products.

Annual average growth in industrial production remained unchanged at November’s 3.1%. Annual average growth has followed a downward trend since March 2014. For the full year 2014, industrial production fell 3.2%, which contrasted 2013’s 2.1% expansion. The result marked the steepest decline since 2009.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production increasing 0.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to expand 2.3%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Industry Chart

Brazil Industry December 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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