Brazil Industry

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Brazil: Industrial production hits over year-and-a-half high

March 5, 2015

In January, industrial production rose 2.0% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which marked a notable improvement over December’s 3.2% contraction. The figure matched market expectations and marked a 19-month high. The expansion was driven by across-the-board improvements, with the largest increase recorded in capital goods.

In annual terms, industrial production fell 5.2% in January (December: -2.7% year-on-year). A decrease in output was recorded in 20 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impact was recorded in the production of motor vehicles, trailers and trucks.

Annual average growth in industrial production fell from December’s minus 3.1% to minus 3.4% in January, which marked a five year low. Annual average growth has followed a downward trend since March 2014.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production falling 1.0% in 2015, which is down 1.4 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to expand 2.0%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Industry January 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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