Brazil Industry


Brazil: Industrial production deteriorates in September

November 4, 2015

In September, industrial production contracted 1.3% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which was a more pronounced contraction than the revised 0.9% decrease (previously reported: -1.2% month-on-month) seen in August. However, the result was better than market analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% fall. The figure was driven by a fall in the production of intermediate goods and consumer goods, while capital goods swung back to growth in September.

In annual terms, industrial production plummeted 10.8% in September, which was a deterioration from August’s revised 8.7% fall (previously reported: -9.0% year-on-year) and marked the worst reading since May 2009. A decrease in output was recorded in 24 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative impact was recorded in the production of motor vehicles and trailers.

The trend continued to point downward in September, with annual average growth in industrial production falling from August’s minus 5.7% to minus 6.4%. Annual average growth has followed a broadly downward trend since March 2014.

The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see industrial production falling 6.7% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to contract 0.6%, which is also down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Industry Chart

Brazil Industry September 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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