Brazil Economic Activity

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Brazil: Economic activity declines for fourth consecutive month in September

November 18, 2015

In September, economic activity fell 0.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central). The figure was a less-pronounced decline than August’s 0.8% fall and beat market analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% drop. However, the print marked the fourth consecutive month of decline as the economy remains stuck in recession.

On an annual basis, economic activity plummeted 6.2%, which was a stark deterioration from August’s revised 4.6% drop (previously reported: -4.5% year-on-year). Meanwhile, annual average growth edged down further from August’s minus 2.2% to minus 2.8%, which marked the worst result since October 2009.

The analysts surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to contract 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel of analysts sees GDP falling 1.1%, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Economic Activity Chart


Brazil Economic Activity September 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.


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