Brazil Economic Activity


Brazil: Economic activity contracts unexpectedly in October

December 16, 2014

In October, economic activity fell 0.3% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central). The figure contrasted the 0.3% expansion tallied in September and was well below market expectations of a 0.2% increase. In addition, the result marked a four-month low in economic activity.

On an annual basis, economic activity declined 1.2% in October, which contrasted the 0.9% rise tallied in September. Meanwhile, annual average growth fell from 0.6% in September to 0.2% in October, which represented the lowest level since January 2010. Further, the downward trend in economic activity that has prevailed for most of the year, continued..

The Central Bank’s Inflation Report from June indicates that it expects GDP to grow 1.8% in 2015. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 0.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth at 0.7%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Economic Activity Chart

Brazil Economic Activity October 2014

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

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