Brazil Current Account October 2016


Brazil: Current account deficit widens in October

November 22, 2016

Brazil’s current account balance deteriorated in October, recording the largest shortfall in three months. The current account registered a shortfall of USD 3.3 billion, which was larger than September’s USD 503 million deficit but was still a significant improvement on October 2015’s USD 4.3 billion deficit. Market analysts had expected a slightly smaller USD 3.1 billion deficit.

The trade surplus shrank in October, from September’s USD 3.8 billion to USD 2.3 billion—a nine-month low. Steeper contractions were recorded in both exports and imports, which fell at double-digit rates compared to the same month of 2015. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment came in at USD 8.4 billion, up from September’s USD 5.3 billion.

The moving 12-month current account deficit continued to narrow and was USD 22.3 billion in October, which was a smaller shortfall than September’s USD 23.3 billion deficit. The improving current account balance has been a bright spot in Brazil’s economic data and it now rests at the lowest level seen since November 2009. October’s result is equivalent to approximately 1.3% of GDP.

Analysts who participated in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel expect a current account deficit of 1.1% of GDP in 2016. For 2017, panelists expect the current account deficit to deteriorate to 1.4% of GDP.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Current Account Chart

Brazil Current Account October 2016

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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