Brazil Consumer Confidence

Brazil

Brazil: Consumer confidence hits five-year low

August 25, 2014

In August, the consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) decreased a seasonally-adjusted 4.3% over the previous month, which marked a deterioration over the 3.0% rise recorded in July. The index fell from the 106.9 points tallied in July to 102.3 points in August, the lowest level in over 5 years. The low was a result of an across-the-board deterioration in all indexes, as well as consumers’ expectations regarding their current economic situation tumbling from 113.0 to 107.2.

The FGV confidence index spans a range from 1 to 200 points, where 100 points is considered neutral. While consumer confidence has hovered above the 100-point threshold, indicating optimism, for a long time, it had followed an almost uninterrupted downward trend from mid-2012 until May of this year. After brief increases in June and July, this trend seems to have reappeared, which suggests that growth in private consumption will continue slowing in the coming months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect private consumption to expand 1.7% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect private consumption to increase 1.7%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Consumer Confidence Chart


Brazil Consumer Confidence August 2014

Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.


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