Brazil: Consumer confidence falls to new record low in February

In February, the consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) fell a seasonally-adjusted 4.9% over the previous month, which followed the 6.7% decrease recorded in January. The index fell from the 89.8 points tallied in January to a new record low level of 85.4 points in February. The deterioration was broad-based. In February, consumers were less optimistic about the current economic situation and the future economic situation compared to the previous month.

The FGV confidence index spans a range from 1 to 200 points, where 100 points is considered neutral. As a result of the monthly drop, consumer confidence lies further in pessimistic territory. The index has followed a broadly-based downward trend from mid-2012 until the present.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect private consumption to expand 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect private consumption to increase 1.5%.