Belarus GDP Q4 2016


Belarus: Flash estimate suggests softer contraction in 2016

January 18, 2017

In 2016, GDP in Belarus decreased 2.6%, according to a flash estimate released by the National Statistical Committee (Belstat) on 18 January. The second consecutive annual contraction was thus softer than in 2015, when the economy decreased a more severe 3.9%. The flash estimate was slightly worse than FocusEconomics panelists’ estimate of a 2.5% contraction for last year.

The preliminary estimate does not give a breakdown of the GDP components or a growth number for Q4. However, available indicators show a mixed picture of the economy. While industrial production improved from a 6.6% decrease in full year 2015 to a moderate 0.4% decline in 2016, retail sales contracted at a sharper rate in the last quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter and for 2016 as a whole retail sales fell 2.3%, down from a meagre 0.2% expansion in 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 0.6% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. For 2018, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.4%.

Author: Marlène Rump, Senior Data Analyst

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