Belarus GDP

Belarus

Belarus: Economy plummets in Q2

October 2, 2015

In Q2, the economy contracted a notable 4.5% over the same quarter last year, according to data released by the National Statistical Committee on 2 October (Q1: -2.1 year-on-year). The reading represented a multi-year low and mostly reflected a sharp deterioration in domestic demand, which more than offset an improvement in the external sector’s contribution.

Private consumption in Q2 fell 3.0% in annual terms, which was a more pronounced contraction from Q1’s 0.5% fall. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted 23.1%, which was a significant deterioration from Q1’s 3.1% contraction and marked a multi-year low. In contrast, government spending rebounded in the second quarter, swinging from a 2.0% contraction in Q1 to a mild 0.1% expansion.

On the external side of the economy, exports expanded 2.2%, which was an improvement from the first quarter’s 1.1% increase. However, imports shrunk 10.9% in the second quarter, a more pronounced contraction from the first quarter’s 8.0% fall. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector improved from plus 0.3 percentage points in Q1 to plus 7.4 percentage points in Q2.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 3.3% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP increasing 0.5%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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