Belarus GDP


Belarus: Economy contracts at record low pace in Q1

June 19, 2015

In Q1, the economy declined 2.3% over the same quarter last year, according to data released by the National Statistical Committee on 19 June. The reading represented a multi-year low and mostly reflected a sharp deterioration in domestic demand, which more than offset an improvement in the external sector’s contribution.

Private consumption fell 0.5% in annual terms in Q1, which contrasted the 2.8% increase observed in Q4 and represented the largest decline since Q2 2012. Government spending contracted 2.0% over the same quarter last year (Q4: -0.1% year-on-year). Conversely, gross fixed capital formation fall moderated from minus 3.9% in Q4 to minus 3.1% in Q1.

On the external side of the economy, the net contribution from the external sector rebounded from minus 3.8 percentage points in Q4 to plus 0.3 percentage points in Q1.

The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus expects economic growth between 0.2% and 0.7% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 2.5% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP increasing 0.4%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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