Argentina Economic Outlook
May 19, 2020The coronavirus pandemic has hit the country in difficult times. Economic activity shriveled in the first two months of this year after plummeting domestic demand crippled the economy in 2019. Since then, Covid-19 fallout and the lockdown caused industrial activity and exports to plunge in March, while consumer confidence fell deeper into pessimistic territory in March-April. Meanwhile, the debt renegotiation saga continues: After three major creditor groups rejected the initial proposal to restructure over USD 65 billion debt, the government extended negotiations until 22 May, the same day a grace period expires for a USD 503 million debt repayment the government suspended in April. Given the need for the government to meet a minimum participation threshold necessary for a comprehensive restructuring, the outlook for striking a deal looks grim.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe Covid-19 crisis will wreak havoc on Argentina's already ailing economy, lambasting domestic and external demand. The pandemic will also exacerbate the country's troubled fiscal position, with an increased use of deficit monetary financing on the cards. If the government defaults on its debts, financial turmoil will likely ensue and external financing sources will dry up. LatinFocus Consensus sees the economy contracting 6.9% in 2020, which is down 1.4 percentage points from last month's estimate, before rebounding 3.5% in 2021.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
May 28, 2020
Exports nosedived 18.9% in year-on-year terms in April, following March’s marked 15.9% slump.
May 21, 2020
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) plunged 11.5% year-on-year in March (February: -2.4% yoy), marking the worst reading since May 2009.
May 15, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.5% from the previous month in April, moderating from March's 3.3% increase.
Argentina: Consumer confidence falls deeper into pessimistic terrain in April amid containment measures
May 13, 2020
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index fell to a near one-year low of 39.3 in April from 41.2 in March amid containment measures.
May 7, 2020
Industrial production tumbled 16.8% year-on-year in March, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 6 May.