Argentina Trade August 2017


Argentina: Trade deficit widens as exports plummet in August

September 27, 2017

In August, export plunged 9.2% in year-on-year terms, contrasting the 5.5% increase observed in July. The plunge in exports reflects a decrease in prices and amount of total goods sold overseas. Primary products reported a steep 28.1% decrease which more than offset a 48.7% increase in sales of fuel and energy products in foreign markets. In dollar, terms, exports reached USD 5.2 billion, below last month’s USD 5.3 billion receipt and August 2016’s USD 5.8 billion.

Growth in imports decelerated from a strong 29.9% increase in July to 24.9% in August. August’s double-digit increase came on the back of an increase in all components of the index except for oil and lubricants. Capital goods, car vehicles and intermediary goods were the three components that increased the most. Brazil, China, the United States and Germany were the markets that imported the most in the surveyed month. In dollar, terms, imports reached USD 6.3 billion, above last month’s USD 6.0 billion receipt and August’s 2016 USD 5.1 billion.

As imports grew and exports contracted, the trade deficit widened from a USD billion 0.8 shortfall to a USD billion 1.1 deficit. August’s print marks the biggest trade deficit since December 2015. In the 12 months up to August, the trade balance posted an accumulated deficit of USD 4.1 billion, which was a deterioration from the USD 2.3 billion deficit recorded in the 12 months till July.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 5.9% in 2017 and imports increasing 8.9%, thus pushing the trade balance to a USD 1.8 billion deficit. For 2018, the panel expects exports to increase 6.6% and imports to expand 7.7%, with a trade shortfall of USD 2.8 billion.

Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Argentina Trade Chart

Argentina Trade12m August 2017

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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