Argentina Trade November 2016


Argentina: Exports rebound sharply in November

December 22, 2016

In November, exports expanded an astonishing 20.5% from the same month the previous year, contrasting October’s 6.4% drop. The print marked the largest expansion since October 2011. November’s hefty increase mostly reflected a recovery from the economic and political uncertainty in 2015 following the October general election and November runoff that year, which had made exporters, particularly in the agricultural sector, postpone some shipments due to the possibility of an imminent devaluation of the peso. On a monthly basis, exports increased 14.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in November compared to the 4.8% decline in October.

Imports contracted at the softest pace in nine months in November, declining 0.4% annually, which followed the 2.1% drop in October. The trade balance shifted to a USD 100 million surplus in November of this year from the USD 736 million deficit in November 2015. In the 12 months up to November, the trade balance posted an accumulated surplus of USD 1.0 billion, which was an improvement from the USD 0.1 billion surplus recorded in the 12 months up to October.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to increase 0.7% in 2016, imports to contract by 5.1% and the trade surplus to be USD 0.4 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports to increase 6.5% and imports to expand 9.7%, with the trade balance recording a USD 1.3 billion deficit.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Argentina Trade Chart

Argentina Trade12m November 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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