Argentina: Exports fall in June

In June, exports dropped 2.6% from the same month last year, contrasting May’s subdued 0.8% increase. Exports declined on the back of lower prices and overall export volumes. As for the different product categories, exports of primary products, agricultural manufactures and fuels and energy fell, more than offsetting an increase in exports of industrial manufactures. As for the export markets which contributed the most to the fall in exports, exports to China, India, Venezuela and Vietnam diminished the most, with the fall in exports to China mainly explained by lower sales of soya beans. On the other hand, the export markets which grew the most were Chile, the United States and Finland. On a monthly basis, exports fell 4.4% in seasonally adjusted terms in June, contrasting May’s revised 1.6% expansion (previously reported: +1.7% month-on-month).

Imports jumped 15.4% annually in June, below May’s impressive 24.0% expansion. The trade balance therefore worsened from a USD 173 million surplus in June 2016 to a USD 748 million deficit in June 2017. In the 12 months up to June, the trade balance posted an accumulated shortfall of USD 1.2 billion, which followed the USD 0.3 billion deficit recorded in the 12 months till May.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 5.9% in 2017 and imports increasing 8.9%, thus pushing the trade balance to a USD 0.80.6 billion deficit. For 2018, the panel expects exports to increase 6.6% and imports to expand 7.7%, with a trade shortfall of USD 1.60.0 billion.