Argentina Trade January 2017

Argentina

Argentina: Dynamics in the external sector remain positive in January

February 22, 2017

In January, exports expanded 9.3% from the same month last year, which was below December’s 33.9% rise. Exports slowed in January following December’s surge, which reflected a recovery from the economic and political uncertainty of 2015 that followed the October general election and November runoff that year. This prompted exporters, particularly in the agricultural sector, to postpone some shipments due to the possibility of an imminent devaluation of the peso. On a monthly basis, exports rose 3.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting the 1.1% decrease in December.

Imports expanded 7.1% annually in January (December: +0.2% year-on-year), the fastest acceleration in over three years. The trade deficit narrowed from USD 177 million in January 2016 to USD 106 million deficit in January 2017. In the 12 months up to January, the trade balance posted an accumulated surplus of USD 2.2 billion, which was an improvement from the USD 2.1 billion surplus recorded in the 12 months up to December.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 6.6% in 2017 and they see imports increasing 9.8%, thus pushing the trade balance to a USD 0.5 billion surplus. For 2018, the panel expects exports to increase 6.0% and imports to expand 7.1%, with a trade deficit of USD 0.1 billion.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Argentina Trade12m January 2017

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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