Argentina: President Fernandez set for re-election according to latest polls
May 4, 2011
According to latest polls, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is set to win re-election in the first round vote of the presidential elections to be held on 23 October. Surveys conducted in May and June by local analysts broadly give Fernandez more than 40% of the vote, ranging from 43.9% according to consulting firm OPSM to 52.7% according to consulting firm ARESCO. Polls assign a comfortable lead to the incumbent president as Fernandez's main opponent Ricardo Alfonsin, member of the Radical Civic Union (UCR, Union Civica Radical) and son of former president Raul Alfonsin, is expected to gain just 20% of voters' support. If such a margin is achieved, there will be no need for a run-off vote. In fact, according to the electoral law, a candidate can win elections directly in the first round if they win either more than 45% of the vote or 40% of the votes with a 10% advantage over the second most popular candidate. Fernandez has benefited from a continued wave of sympathy following the death of her husband and former president Nestor Kirchner in October last year. This support has remained strong during the following months, on the back of the positive performance of the Argentinean economy and the inability of the opposition parties to build a credible alternative for Argentinean voters. At the time of writing, Fernandez has yet to announce whether she will run for election. According to local sources, she will announce her presidential bid on 23 June, two days before the deadline set for politicians to register as a candidate.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions