Argentina: President Fernandez announces her bid for re-election
June 22, 2011
On 21 June, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced her bid for another four-year term in the next presidential elections scheduled on 23 October. Fernandez had hinted during the last months at the possibility of not running for re-election and announced her bid only a few days before the deadline for registering as a candidate expired. Analysts were not surprised by her decision, as they had believed Fernandez would seize the wave of sympathy from the Argentinean people following the death of her husband and former president Nestor Kirchner in October last year. Popular support for Cristina Fernandez has remained strong during the last months, mainly on the back of the positive performance of the Argentinean economy. Fernandez' choice of current Economy Minister Amado Boudou as her future vice president suggests that the economy will be the main focus of the electoral campaign, according to political analysts. Moreover, the decision implies a continuation of the strongly interventionist economic policy that has characterized the current Fernandez administration. Surveys conducted before Fernandez's announcement to run for office gave her more than 40% of the vote. The trend remained broadly unchanged in more recent polls, with intentions to vote for Fernandez ranging from 38.3%, according to consulting firm Management & Fit to 49.8%, according to a poll by CEOP-Opinion Publica. Polls place support for the main opponent Ricardo Alfonsin, of the Radical Civic Union (UCR, Union Civica Radical) between 10% and 20%, thus assigning a comfortable lead for the incumbent president. If such a margin is achieved and if Fernandez secures at least 40% of voters' support, there would be no need for a run-off vote. According to the electoral law, candidates can win elections directly in the first round if they win either more than 45% of the vote or 40% of the votes with a 10% advantage over the second most popular candidate.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions