Argentina: Inflation stalls for fifth consecutive month
August 18, 2011
In July, consumer prices rose 0.79% over the previous month, slightly up from the 0.71% price increase registered in June and broadly in line with the 0.80% increase tallied in July last year. As a result, annual headline inflation remained stable for a fifth consecutive month at 9.7%, the lowest level since March 2010. Official inflation data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) continues to be met with suspicion ever since a controversial change to the price variation measurement methodology was implemented two years ago. Allegations that INDEC data may be manipulated by the government have been repeatedly denied by the local authorities. In addition, in March the government began fining a number of economic consultancy firms over the publication of inflation estimates differing from INDEC's numbers, further raising doubts about the validity of official inflation data. In fact, official inflation figures are less than half the level of actual inflation estimates made by independent analysts. Consumers share the more realistic assessment of inflation made by private analysts. According to a Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) survey conducted in August, households believe that consumer prices will increase 25% over the next 12 months, which was in line with results from July's survey.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions