Argentina: Inflation moderates in October
November 21, 2011
In October, consumer prices rose 0.63% over the previous month, which was down both from the 0.83% expansion recorded in September and the 0.84% increase recorded in October last year. As a consequence, annual headline inflation dropped from 9.9% in September to 9.7% in October. Official inflation data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) are continually met with suspicion ever since a controversial change to the price variation measurement methodology was implemented two years ago. As a result, private sector analysts have begun to report independent inflation estimates that differ notably from the official figures. The government has repeatedly denied allegations that INDEC data are manipulated and, in March, went a step further by beginning to fine a number of consultancy firms for publishing independent inflation estimates, raising further doubts about the validity of official inflation data. Consumers share private analysts' more realistic inflation assessments. According to a Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) survey conducted in November, households believe that consumer prices will increase 25% over the next 12 months, which is in line with results from the October survey.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions