Argentina Inflation

Argentina

Argentina: Inflation eases further in April

May 18, 2015

Consumer prices in April increased 1.1% over the previous month, according to the inflation index elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC). The reading was in line with market expectations and came in below March’s 1.3% rise. April’s reading mainly reflected higher prices for food and beverages as well as for education. In annual terms, inflation continued to ease in April, declining to 15.8% from March’s 16.5%, thus reaching the lowest level in over a year.

Argentina’s inflation index, which was introduced early last year, measures prices nationwide, whereas readings prior to February 2014 were based solely on Buenos Aires and the surrounding metropolitan area. The index was implemented in an effort to restore confidence in official inflation data, while also meeting the deadline that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), set in December 2013, requiring Argentina to release new GDP and inflation figures by March 2014. The previous inflation index had been viewed with suspicion both within the country and abroad for underreporting inflation figures, which prompted the IMF to censure Argentina for not supplying accurate economic data.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official inflation of 20.8% at the end of 2015, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists estimate that official inflation will end 2016 at 24.4%. Panelists revised downward their forecasts for non-official inflation, although their projections are still higher than official inflation expectations. The panel expects non-official inflation of 30.4% in 2015, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Analysts see non-official inflation slowing to 28.2% in 2016.


Author:, Senior Economist

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