Argentina Inflation

Argentina

Argentina: Annual inflation ends 2014 at 23.9%

January 19, 2014

Consumer prices increased 1.0% over the previous month in December, according to the new inflation index elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC). The reading came in below both the 1.1% increase recorded in November and the 1.1% rise that the markets had expected. December’s reading mainly reflected higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and leisure activities. In annual terms, inflation ended 2014 at 23.9%.

The new inflation index measures prices nationwide, whereas readings prior to February 2014 were based solely on Buenos Aires and the surrounding metropolitan area. The new index was implemented in an effort to restore confidence in official inflation data, while also meeting the deadline that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set in December 2013 requiring Argentina to release new GDP and inflation figures by March 2014. The previous inflation index was viewed with suspicion both within the country and abroad for underreporting inflation figures, which prompted the IMF to censure Argentina for not supplying accurate economic data.

The new inflation figures, however, have not completely dispelled suspicions of underreporting, as the price increases that the INDEC has reported are far below local private analysts’ independent estimates. Despite also recording a downward trend as is exhibited by the official figures, the so-called “Congress Index” (IPC-Congreso), which is an alternative inflation gauge based on independent estimates that opposition lawmakers collect, increased 1.9% over the previous month in December (November: +1.9% month-on-month).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see official inflation of 23.0% at the end of 2015, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists estimate that official inflation will end 2016 at 26.1%. Forecasts for the non-official inflation are even higher. The panel expects non-official inflation to increase to 34.2% in 2015, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Analysts see non-official inflation slowing to 26.1% in 2016.


Author:, Economist

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