Argentina: Economic growth accelerates in Q1
June 17, 2011
In the first quarter, GDP rose 9.9% over the same period the year before. The reading represented an acceleration compared to the 9.2% increase recorded in the previous quarter and beat market analysts' expectations of an 8.6% rise. The acceleration was driven by a stronger external sector, while the contribution of the domestic sector to growth deteriorated compared to the previous quarter. Total consumption added 11.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, up from the 10.9% increase recorded in Q4 2010. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment increased 19.5%, a strong result which nonetheless marked a moderation compared to the 24.7% rise in the Q4. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services grew 7.1% (Q4 2010: +7.4%), while imports added 20.4% (Q4: +32.7%). As imports slowed more than exports, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth improved from minus 3.1 percentage points in Q4 to minus 1.9 percentage points in Q1. At the sector level, the improvement was driven by the agricultural sector, which accelerated from 10.6% growth in Q4 to 12.2% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, industry expanded 10.9%, up from the 9.0% rise in the fourth quarter. Finally, services increased 8.7% (Q4: +8.2% yoy). A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the positive result seen in annual figures, as GDP expanded 2.82% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, broadly in line with the 2.97% registered in the fourth quarter. The Central Bank sees the economy growing 6.0% this year.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions