Argentina Economic Activity

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity flat in June

August 20, 2014

In June, economic activity recorded zero growth over the same month last year, which marked an improvement over the 0.2% decrease recorded in May and represented the highest print in four months. The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. On a monthly basis, economic activity expanded 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, which represented a slight deterioration over the 0.5% increase tallied in the previous month.

New figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth than official sources. That said, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 0.9% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to grow 1.0%. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to contract 1.8% in 2014 and to expand a meager 0.3% in 2015.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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