Argentina Economic Activity

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity expands in October for the first time in four months

December 29, 2014

Economic activity increased 0.1% in October compared to the same month of the previous year. October’s result contrasted September’s 0.8% decline (previously reported: -0.2% year-on-year) and marked the first positive growth since June 2014. The reading is based on the new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. Economic activity expanded 0.8% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was above the 0.1% increase tallied in September.

The new figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources. However, there is still a notable discrepancy between official and non-official figures.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to increase 1.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect official GDP to expand 0.1%. The panel sees non-official GDP expanding 2.2% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016.

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