Argentina Economic Activity July 2017

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity expands at over two-year high in July

September 27, 2017

In July, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) rose 4.9% year-on-year, the fastest rate since June 2015 and above June’s already-strong 4.2% expansion. June’s reading was the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year gains in the index, boosting President Mauricio Macri’s market-friendly policies just a month before the crucial mid-term legislative elections in October.

July’s surge reflects strong growth in manufacturing and construction, the latter of which expanded at a double-digit rate for the second consecutive month. In contrast, electricity, gas and water production swung to a contraction and mining and quarrying logged its 20th consecutive decline.

A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity expanded 0.7% in July, which came in above the 0.3% increase observed in June. On average, economic activity increased 0.2% in the 12 months up to July, which is an improvement from the 0.6% drop in the 12 months up to June.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect the economy to rebound and expand 2.7% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists project the economy to expand 2.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.


Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity July 2017

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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