Argentina Economic Activity


Argentina: Economic activity drops in March

May 21, 2014

In March, economic activity fell 0.9% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 1.3% increase recorded in February. The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. On a monthly basis, economic activity contracted 0.9% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which represented a deterioration compared to February’s 0.3% decline.

Based on monthly data, GDP would have expanded a mild 0.6% over the same period last year in Q1, which was a slowdown over the 1.4% increase tallied in Q4 and marked the lowest growth since Q3 2012.

New figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth than official sources. That said, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 0.1% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to grow 1.2%. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to experience a 1.5% contraction in 2014 and to expand a meager 0.7% in 2015.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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