Argentina Economic Activity

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity declines in August

October 27, 2014

Economic activity dropped 1.2% in August compared to the same month last year. August’s result was down from July’s 0.1% annual contraction (previously reported: 0.0% year-on-year). The reading is based on a new calculation methodology—adopted by the national statistical institute in March in response to a request from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that shifts the base year of calculation from 1993 to 2004. Economic activity contracted 0.9% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. August’s reading contrasted the 0.1% expansion tallied in July and marked the first monthly contraction since March of this year.

The new figures bring the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources. However, a discrepancy between official and non-official figures still exists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect official GDP to decline 1.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, participants expect official GDP to drop 0.2%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Additionally, LatinFocus panelists expect non-official GDP to contract 2.2% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015.

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