Argentina Economic Activity September 2016

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity contracts sharply in September

November 24, 2016

In September, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) dropped 3.7% year-on-year, which was a deterioration compared to August’s revised 2.1% decline (previously reported: -2.6% year-on-year). The print was below the 3.5% drop that markets had expected.

Sequential data corroborate the deterioration. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity fell 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, which contrasted August’s 0.3% increase.

On average, in the 12 months up to September, economic activity decreased 1.1%, which was below August’s 0.6% decline and marked the weakest growth rate since May 2015.

The Statistical Institute relaunched the economic activity indicator series in August following an eight-month hiatus as statistical data had come under heavy criticism under the previous administration.

FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to contract 1.8% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to accelerate significantly and expand 3.2%, which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Argentina Economic Activity Chart


Argentina Economic Activity September 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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